Friday, November 30, 2007

on the occasion of the reported death of the liberal party..

i was amazed to hear that a party with a 2pp of 47% was at death's door. if 3 people in 100 had gone from 'green' to 'lib' instead of 'lab', we'd be marveling at howard's latest triumph.

still, margins are less important than directions. if libs don't find some way to get 1/2 or more of the green vote, they will drift out of contention. i presume malcolm turnbull knows this, but the people he has to work with do not.

so one can imagine the labor party becoming the agent of commerce and industry and slowly starving the libs of their financial support. this is when the greens may become significant. they will grow simply because they have no debts to pay, and can put the case for saving the planet when it is becoming ever more evident the planet needs saving. they will also peel off labor supporters who are uncomfortable with the compromises required to be the 'natural' party of government.

under these conditions, labor will indeed prosper. this might be a bad thing for oz though, a comfortable ruling party needn't do much.

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